Senate Ratings

Here are Rothenberg's Senate ratings:

Lean Takeover (1 R, 0 D)

• VA Open (Warner, R)

Toss-Up (3 R, 1 D)

• CO Open (Allard, R)
• NM Open (Domenici, R)
  
• Sununu (R-NH)
• Landrieu (D-LA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 0 D)

• Coleman (R-MN)
• Collins (R-ME)
• Smith (R-OR)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (4 R, 0 D)

• NE Open (Hagel, R)
• Dole (R-NC)
• McConnell (R-KY)
• Stevens (R-AK)

As you can see, all four of our top four (8 in 08's "Good Chance to Win") are in "Lean Takeover" or "Toss-Up" categories and three of the next four (8 in 08's "Fair Chance to Win") are in "Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party." Kentucky, which rounds out our final eighth position is in Rothenberg's "Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party" category. We don't disagree with Rothenberg's assessment, but think that the DSCC will make this seat a priority to make the Republican's pay for doing the same to Tom Daschle. Rhetorically, the national party has already made Kentucky a priority. We'll see if resources follow. There are several other states that can compete with the Bluegrass State for number eight. 8 in 08 will publish an analysis of these "bubble" races sometime soon.

Rothenberg's analysis points to something that has been missing so far from 8 in 08's analysis: Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. While we are trying to pick-up additional seats, we are doing so in order to build towards a filibuster-proof majority that can ensure the passage of the Employee Free Choice Act. We need to win nine net votes. Picking up nine will not do the trick if we lose one. So, we will keep an eye on Louisiana, and make sure we keep up a link to her campaign site so you can easily find a way to contribute to her reelection if you want to.

P.S. You don't see Mississippi in the ratings quoted above because the ratings don't yet reflect Lott's resignation. I assume the seat will rate "Currently Safe," and that should be true until we see some polls showing Musgrove or Moore making an impact above 40% or the Republican appointee showing below 50%.