Is Mississippi in Play?

A few weeks ago there was some speculation that Republican Senator Thad Cochran would retire. In the end he surprised some (but not all) in announcing his intention to run for reelection in 2008. With that, it appeared there would not be even a slim chance of the Democrats taking the seat in a state where no Democrat has served in the U.S. Senate since 1989.

Then, we all woke up the other day and Trent Lott announced -- not a retirement -- but that he was resigning. Despite a lot of unsubstantiated rumors, it does not appear that scandal is forcing Lott's hand. Nevertheless, now both Mississippi seats will be up in 2008. (This makes Mississippi the second state [along with Wyoming] with two Senate races on the ballot in 2008 -- and all four seats are currently held by Republicans.) And, despite a certain Republican appointment by Gov. Haley Barbour, the seat will be essentially open. There is evidence from the 2004 and 2006 elections that younger cohorts in Mississippi are trending Democratic and indeed Democrats have been elected to congressional and statewide office in recent years. One of those Democrats, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, told the Rothenberg Political Report yesterday that he "is seriously considering" running for Lott's seat. Another former statewide official, Attorney General Michael Moore, had considered running for Cochran's seat before he decided to run for reelection. Moore may be a candidate for Lott's seat as well.

Barbour will likely appoint someone like Chip Pickering, who is retiring from Congress but could still be a commanding presence in the race. In any case, with Musgrove running for an open seat, Mississippi goes from out-of-the-question to some chance. We'll stay tuned on this one, but it is not likely to break into our top eight races (yet).