CQ Politics rates the five U.S. Senate seats most likely to flip parties in the fall elections.

Note the last race - Mississippi. You heard it here first months ago that Mississippi would be in play --RS

Thanks again to Politicalwire.com

Each of the seats is currently held by a Republican.

In Virginia, former Gov. Mark Warner (D) is heavily favored to succeed retiring five-term Sen. John W. Warner (R-VA). The race is rated as Democrat Favored, meaning this is a likely pickup for the challenging party.

In New Mexico, Sen. Pete Domenici's decision not to seek re-election has created a golden opportunity for a Democratic takeover. This race is rated Leans Democratic.

In New Hampshire, first-term Republican Sen. John Sununu ranks as the incumbent most vulnerable to defeat this year. It's currently rated as No Clear Favorite.

In Colorado, Democratic gains over the past few years would have endangered Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) had he run for re-election. It's rated No Clear Favorite.

In Mississippi, where interim Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), appointed to his seat last December, faces competition from a well-known Democrat, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, in a special election to fill the final four years of resigned Sen. Trent Lott's unexpired term. This race is also rated No Clear Favorite.

Mitch McConnell's Senate Seat Now In Jeopardy

Sam Stein has an interesting piece at the Huffington Post about Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell's re-election concerns:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/23/mitch-mcconnells-senate-s_n_108642.html

New Senate Polls (+ a couple previously reported here)

New polls reported at politics1.com.

ALASKA (Rasmussen): US Senator Ted Stevens (R) - 46%, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) - 44%.
IOWA (Rasmussen): US Senator Tom Harkin (D) - 53%, businessman Chris Reed (R) - 37%.
KANSAS (Rasmussen): US Senator Pat Roberts (R) - 48%, former Congressman Jim Slattery (D) - 39%.
KENTUCKY (SurveyUSA): US Senator Mitch McConnell (R) - 50%, businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) - 46%.
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): US Senator Carl Levin (D) - 55%, State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R) - 35%.
MINNESOTA (Rasmussen): US Senator Norm Coleman (R) - 48%, humorist Al Franken (D) - 45%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): US Senator Elizabeth Dole - 53%, State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 39%.
OKLAHOMA (Rasmussen): US Senator Jim Inhofe - 53%, State Senator Andrew Rice (D) - 31%.
OREGON (Rasmussen): US Senator Gordon Smith (R) - 47%, State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) - 38%.
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Former Governor Mark Warner (D) - 60%, former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) - 33%.

GOP Writes Off Two Key Senate Seats

GOP Writes Off Two Key Senate Seats

By Eric Kleefeld - June 13, 2008, 11:42AM

Wow, this one really spells trouble for the GOP this fall -- the guy in charge of the party's Senate races just basically wrote off the Republicans' chances in two of their five open seats.

At yesterday's Christian Science Monitor forum -- the same venue where he upgraded the GOP's goal to a potential three-seat loss -- NRSC chairman John Ensign was asked point-blank if the party was giving up on the open seats they currently hold in Virginia and New Mexico, where the Democratic nominees are way ahead of the Republicans in current polling.

Ensign said bluntly: "You don't waste money on races that don't need it or you can't win."

New polls show dead heat in Kentucky and Begich ahead in Alaska

Kentucky Senate Race a Statistical Tie

A new SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky shows Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in a statistical dead heat with U.S. Senate rival Bruce Lunsford (D), 50% to 46%.

Interesting finding is that the most important issue for McConnell voters is the economy; for Lunsford, it is the environment and by a large margin.

Poll: Begich has edge on Stevens

By R. A. Dillon

Published Monday, June 9, 2008 in Fairbanks Daily Newsminer

WASHINGTON — A recent poll shows Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading incumbent Ted Stevens in the U.S. Senate race.

The survey found 51 percent of those responding would vote for Begich in November’s general election, compared to 44 percent who said they would back Stevens.

The poll indicates Begich is gaining name recognition across the state, but Stevens, who’s served in the Senate since 1968, also remains popular.

Some 58 percent of responders said they felt very or somewhat positive toward Begich, while only 16 percent had a negative opinion of the 45-year-old Democratic mayor. Eleven percent of those responding didn’t know of Begich.

For Stevens, the numbers were a little closer — 49 percent had a positive opinion, while 40 percent had a negative opinion. All of the survey’s 269 responders knew Stevens was the state’s senior senator.

Stevens’ bid to win a seventh full term in the Senate has been overshadowed by an ongoing corruption investigation by the U.S. Justice Department. Stevens has not been charged with any wrongdoing.

High name recognition may partially explain why the poll shows Stevens beating challenger Dave Cuddy by 15 percentage points in the Republican primary. More than 42 percent of poll participants said they had no idea who Cuddy was.

The poll did not ask about the Democratic primary, in which Begich faces Ray Metcalfe, founder of the Moderate Republican Party, and Frank Vondersaar. It also did not contain questions about the other seven long-shot candidates who hope to serve as Alaska’s next senator.

Half of those responding to the survey had no party affiliation or were registered Independents. Registered Republicans made up 27 percent of respondents; Democrats made up 22 percent.

The poll was conducted between May 6 and May 10 by Anchorage firm Hellenthal and Associates. It has a 6 percent margin of error.

Can Texas go Dem in November? Cornyn looks vulnerable against Noreiga!

From Rasmussen Reports:

Election 2008: Texas Senate
Texas Senate: Cornyn 47% Noriega 43%
Monday, May 05, 2008

It’s time to add United States Senator John Cornyn to the list of potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents in Election 2008. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state find Cornyn leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega by just four percentage points, 47% to 43%.

Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. That is especially true when a little known challenger is so competitive in an early general election match-up. The race for President in Texas is also fairly competitive early in Election 2008.

Noreiga leads among voters earning less than $40,000 a year. Cornyn leads among those with higher incomes. Cornyn leads among Evangelical Christian voters and other Protestants. Noreiga leads among those with a different faith background. Both candidates do well within their own party and are fairly evenly matched among unaffiliated voters.

Democrats are likely to expand their majority in the Senate this year by picking up several Senate seats currently held by the GOP. Early polling indicates that many states offer potential Democratic gains including Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Alaska.

Cornyn is viewed favorably by 50% of the state’s likely voters, unfavorably by 37%.
Noreiga earns positive reviews from 45% and negative assessments from 39%.
Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters say the state’s Republican Governor, Rick Perry, is doing a good or excellent job. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say he is doing a poor job.
President George W. Bush doesn’t do as well. Just 39% of voters in his adopted home state say that the President has done a good or an excellent job. Forty-five percent (45%) rate his performance as poor.

New Senate Updates from Politicalwire.com -- Close races in Mississippi, North Carolina, and Virginia!

Wicker Faces Tough Senate Race in Mississippi

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), appointed to fill the seat of retired Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS), "finds himself in a very tight election battle" with former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) "to win the job on his own," according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey. Musgrove (D) edges Wicker, 47% to 46%.

Dole Faces Tough Challenge in North Carolina

A new Civitas Institute poll shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) just two points ahead of challenger Kay Hagan (D), 45% to 43%, within the poll's +/- 3.7 percent margin of error.


And Virginia still looks like a pick-up!
Warner Rated More Favorably Than Gilmore in Virginia

A new Virginia Commonwealth University poll finds many more Virginians have a favorable view of former Gov. Mark Warner (D) than former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) as the two prepare to face off in a U.S. Senate race.Warner's favorability is at 47%, while Gilmore's is only 23%.Said pollster Cary Funk: "These results suggest that Jim Gilmore will need to re‐introduce himself to Virginia voters if he is the GOP candidate for the Senate. As the contest for the U.S. Senate seat begins in earnest, Mark Warner has a clear advantage in terms of name recognition. And, those with an opinion about Warner tend to think well of him by a margin of nearly 5 to 1. That compares with a positive to negative image of about 1.5 to 1 for Gilmore."