Can Texas go Dem in November? Cornyn looks vulnerable against Noreiga!

From Rasmussen Reports:

Election 2008: Texas Senate
Texas Senate: Cornyn 47% Noriega 43%
Monday, May 05, 2008

It’s time to add United States Senator John Cornyn to the list of potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents in Election 2008. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state find Cornyn leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega by just four percentage points, 47% to 43%.

Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. That is especially true when a little known challenger is so competitive in an early general election match-up. The race for President in Texas is also fairly competitive early in Election 2008.

Noreiga leads among voters earning less than $40,000 a year. Cornyn leads among those with higher incomes. Cornyn leads among Evangelical Christian voters and other Protestants. Noreiga leads among those with a different faith background. Both candidates do well within their own party and are fairly evenly matched among unaffiliated voters.

Democrats are likely to expand their majority in the Senate this year by picking up several Senate seats currently held by the GOP. Early polling indicates that many states offer potential Democratic gains including Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Alaska.

Cornyn is viewed favorably by 50% of the state’s likely voters, unfavorably by 37%.
Noreiga earns positive reviews from 45% and negative assessments from 39%.
Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters say the state’s Republican Governor, Rick Perry, is doing a good or excellent job. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say he is doing a poor job.
President George W. Bush doesn’t do as well. Just 39% of voters in his adopted home state say that the President has done a good or an excellent job. Forty-five percent (45%) rate his performance as poor.

New Senate Updates from Politicalwire.com -- Close races in Mississippi, North Carolina, and Virginia!

Wicker Faces Tough Senate Race in Mississippi

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), appointed to fill the seat of retired Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS), "finds himself in a very tight election battle" with former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) "to win the job on his own," according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey. Musgrove (D) edges Wicker, 47% to 46%.

Dole Faces Tough Challenge in North Carolina

A new Civitas Institute poll shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) just two points ahead of challenger Kay Hagan (D), 45% to 43%, within the poll's +/- 3.7 percent margin of error.


And Virginia still looks like a pick-up!
Warner Rated More Favorably Than Gilmore in Virginia

A new Virginia Commonwealth University poll finds many more Virginians have a favorable view of former Gov. Mark Warner (D) than former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) as the two prepare to face off in a U.S. Senate race.Warner's favorability is at 47%, while Gilmore's is only 23%.Said pollster Cary Funk: "These results suggest that Jim Gilmore will need to re‐introduce himself to Virginia voters if he is the GOP candidate for the Senate. As the contest for the U.S. Senate seat begins in earnest, Mark Warner has a clear advantage in terms of name recognition. And, those with an opinion about Warner tend to think well of him by a margin of nearly 5 to 1. That compares with a positive to negative image of about 1.5 to 1 for Gilmore."

Updates, finally

Ok. It's taken a lot longer to shake out this presidential race than I thought back in February. But, it looks like we have a nominee now and as the summer approaches the Senate races are beginning to heat up a little. Momentum has been on our side all year -- and the impressive Democratic victories in the Congressional special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi have the Republicans very worried. Even the conservative press is concerned that the Democrats might get close or even attain a filibuster-proof majority.

Some recent polls show some Senate seats very much in play that we thought might have been bubble seats (or more accurately, pipe dreams): Alaska and North Carolina.

And we are way ahead in New Hampshire and New Mexico.

In Minnesota, we have an eventual nominee, Al Franken, but the race so far looks tougher than we had hoped. Even so, we are in good shape there.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Republican incumbents in Texas, Kentucky, and Mississippi are only up by single digits against their Democratic opponents (to be fair, that is only implied in Mississippi, not claimed).

I've been waiting for the presidential primary season to pass over before getting back on track with the Senate races. As you undoubtedly know, the season is not over despite earlier CW claiming Super Tuesday would settle all scores. I am about to leave on a short vacation, so I will be back in a week or so with new updates. But, here's one to leave you with that should be encouraging:

Despite some polls over the holidays showing Jeanne Shaheen trailing John Sununu in New Hampshire, our good friend at Politics1.com tells us that a "new UNH poll shows former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) leading US Senator John Sununu (R) by a vote of 54% to 37%." The earlier polls showing Shaheen losing were disturbing since NH was looking like a lock for a Dem pick-up in November. Those polls came out around the time Shaheen's husband made derogatory comments about Senator Barack Obama, which as you will recall backfired on him personally and on Senator Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. (Mr. Shaheen was Clinton's NH campaign chairman.) It may be that the earlier polls simply captured a short-term anger at Shaheen's husband. Whatever the case, it now appears we are back on track for a pick-up.

Eye on the NLRB - Listing the (MANY) reasons we need EFCA

American Rights at Work has an important blog written by Erin Johansson that keeps track of all the latest anti-worker decisions by the pro-corporate Bush National Labor Relations Board. Erin has some very good -- and concise -- discussions of the most recent Board, including the infamous September Massacre cases. Two of those cases dealt with the subject matter of EFCA: card-check recognition. The first, Dana/Metadyne, held that immediately after over 50% of workers signed union cards and were recognized by the company, 30% of workers could petition to have an election to overrule the majority. The second, Wurtland Nursing, held that an employer could decertify a union without a vote upon presentation of a petition by more than 50% of the workers. These two decisions together mean that the NLRB's position on card-check is that it is not dispositive of workers' desire to join a union, but is dispositive of workers' desire to disaffiliate from a union.

For a good primer on the Board's current anti-worker decisions, read Harold Meyerson's recent piece in the Washington Post.

Alaska - A New Hope?

A new poll shows Alaska in play. We've had some discussions about this seat in the past. Considering Ted Stevens' legal problems, and the possibility of former Gov Tony Knowles (D) challenging him, I thought this seat was a serious opportunity for a pick-up. Others weren't so sure. Then, Knowles made it clear he had no plans to run and the CW seem to confirm Alaska remaining held even with Stevens in the seat. This new poll shows Stevens losing to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) by 47 to 41. I am not clear yet whether Begich is actually in the race (he does not have a Senate campaign site as far as I can tell), but this poll is encouraging. Considering recent news out of Kentucky, perhaps Alaska has just moved into our number 8 spot.

Updates on the Senate Landscape

Political Insider has a good run-down of the current Senate races. You can read it here.

Politicalwire.com has some bad news to announce about Kentucky. It's looking like Attorney General Greg Stumbo might not run against Mitch McConnell after all. Read about it here.