Updates, finally

Ok. It's taken a lot longer to shake out this presidential race than I thought back in February. But, it looks like we have a nominee now and as the summer approaches the Senate races are beginning to heat up a little. Momentum has been on our side all year -- and the impressive Democratic victories in the Congressional special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi have the Republicans very worried. Even the conservative press is concerned that the Democrats might get close or even attain a filibuster-proof majority.

Some recent polls show some Senate seats very much in play that we thought might have been bubble seats (or more accurately, pipe dreams): Alaska and North Carolina.

And we are way ahead in New Hampshire and New Mexico.

In Minnesota, we have an eventual nominee, Al Franken, but the race so far looks tougher than we had hoped. Even so, we are in good shape there.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Republican incumbents in Texas, Kentucky, and Mississippi are only up by single digits against their Democratic opponents (to be fair, that is only implied in Mississippi, not claimed).

I've been waiting for the presidential primary season to pass over before getting back on track with the Senate races. As you undoubtedly know, the season is not over despite earlier CW claiming Super Tuesday would settle all scores. I am about to leave on a short vacation, so I will be back in a week or so with new updates. But, here's one to leave you with that should be encouraging:

Despite some polls over the holidays showing Jeanne Shaheen trailing John Sununu in New Hampshire, our good friend at Politics1.com tells us that a "new UNH poll shows former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) leading US Senator John Sununu (R) by a vote of 54% to 37%." The earlier polls showing Shaheen losing were disturbing since NH was looking like a lock for a Dem pick-up in November. Those polls came out around the time Shaheen's husband made derogatory comments about Senator Barack Obama, which as you will recall backfired on him personally and on Senator Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. (Mr. Shaheen was Clinton's NH campaign chairman.) It may be that the earlier polls simply captured a short-term anger at Shaheen's husband. Whatever the case, it now appears we are back on track for a pick-up.

Eye on the NLRB - Listing the (MANY) reasons we need EFCA

American Rights at Work has an important blog written by Erin Johansson that keeps track of all the latest anti-worker decisions by the pro-corporate Bush National Labor Relations Board. Erin has some very good -- and concise -- discussions of the most recent Board, including the infamous September Massacre cases. Two of those cases dealt with the subject matter of EFCA: card-check recognition. The first, Dana/Metadyne, held that immediately after over 50% of workers signed union cards and were recognized by the company, 30% of workers could petition to have an election to overrule the majority. The second, Wurtland Nursing, held that an employer could decertify a union without a vote upon presentation of a petition by more than 50% of the workers. These two decisions together mean that the NLRB's position on card-check is that it is not dispositive of workers' desire to join a union, but is dispositive of workers' desire to disaffiliate from a union.

For a good primer on the Board's current anti-worker decisions, read Harold Meyerson's recent piece in the Washington Post.

Alaska - A New Hope?

A new poll shows Alaska in play. We've had some discussions about this seat in the past. Considering Ted Stevens' legal problems, and the possibility of former Gov Tony Knowles (D) challenging him, I thought this seat was a serious opportunity for a pick-up. Others weren't so sure. Then, Knowles made it clear he had no plans to run and the CW seem to confirm Alaska remaining held even with Stevens in the seat. This new poll shows Stevens losing to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) by 47 to 41. I am not clear yet whether Begich is actually in the race (he does not have a Senate campaign site as far as I can tell), but this poll is encouraging. Considering recent news out of Kentucky, perhaps Alaska has just moved into our number 8 spot.

Updates on the Senate Landscape

Political Insider has a good run-down of the current Senate races. You can read it here.

Politicalwire.com has some bad news to announce about Kentucky. It's looking like Attorney General Greg Stumbo might not run against Mitch McConnell after all. Read about it here.

Senate Ratings

Here are Rothenberg's Senate ratings:

Lean Takeover (1 R, 0 D)

• VA Open (Warner, R)

Toss-Up (3 R, 1 D)

• CO Open (Allard, R)
• NM Open (Domenici, R)
  
• Sununu (R-NH)
• Landrieu (D-LA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 0 D)

• Coleman (R-MN)
• Collins (R-ME)
• Smith (R-OR)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (4 R, 0 D)

• NE Open (Hagel, R)
• Dole (R-NC)
• McConnell (R-KY)
• Stevens (R-AK)

As you can see, all four of our top four (8 in 08's "Good Chance to Win") are in "Lean Takeover" or "Toss-Up" categories and three of the next four (8 in 08's "Fair Chance to Win") are in "Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party." Kentucky, which rounds out our final eighth position is in Rothenberg's "Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party" category. We don't disagree with Rothenberg's assessment, but think that the DSCC will make this seat a priority to make the Republican's pay for doing the same to Tom Daschle. Rhetorically, the national party has already made Kentucky a priority. We'll see if resources follow. There are several other states that can compete with the Bluegrass State for number eight. 8 in 08 will publish an analysis of these "bubble" races sometime soon.

Rothenberg's analysis points to something that has been missing so far from 8 in 08's analysis: Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. While we are trying to pick-up additional seats, we are doing so in order to build towards a filibuster-proof majority that can ensure the passage of the Employee Free Choice Act. We need to win nine net votes. Picking up nine will not do the trick if we lose one. So, we will keep an eye on Louisiana, and make sure we keep up a link to her campaign site so you can easily find a way to contribute to her reelection if you want to.

P.S. You don't see Mississippi in the ratings quoted above because the ratings don't yet reflect Lott's resignation. I assume the seat will rate "Currently Safe," and that should be true until we see some polls showing Musgrove or Moore making an impact above 40% or the Republican appointee showing below 50%.

Is Mississippi in Play?

A few weeks ago there was some speculation that Republican Senator Thad Cochran would retire. In the end he surprised some (but not all) in announcing his intention to run for reelection in 2008. With that, it appeared there would not be even a slim chance of the Democrats taking the seat in a state where no Democrat has served in the U.S. Senate since 1989.

Then, we all woke up the other day and Trent Lott announced -- not a retirement -- but that he was resigning. Despite a lot of unsubstantiated rumors, it does not appear that scandal is forcing Lott's hand. Nevertheless, now both Mississippi seats will be up in 2008. (This makes Mississippi the second state [along with Wyoming] with two Senate races on the ballot in 2008 -- and all four seats are currently held by Republicans.) And, despite a certain Republican appointment by Gov. Haley Barbour, the seat will be essentially open. There is evidence from the 2004 and 2006 elections that younger cohorts in Mississippi are trending Democratic and indeed Democrats have been elected to congressional and statewide office in recent years. One of those Democrats, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, told the Rothenberg Political Report yesterday that he "is seriously considering" running for Lott's seat. Another former statewide official, Attorney General Michael Moore, had considered running for Cochran's seat before he decided to run for reelection. Moore may be a candidate for Lott's seat as well.

Barbour will likely appoint someone like Chip Pickering, who is retiring from Congress but could still be a commanding presence in the race. In any case, with Musgrove running for an open seat, Mississippi goes from out-of-the-question to some chance. We'll stay tuned on this one, but it is not likely to break into our top eight races (yet).